The Doomed and the Blind
As politicians sit squabbling in Washington, deliberating and deciding, an asteroid 4 kilometers across is thundering through space at 15 miles per second. It was forged in a galactic maelstrom millions of years ago from molten metal, and now it tumbles through space with malevolent indifference. People sit unaware of an impending disaster, carrying on their daily activities while extinction encroaches. It won’t just be the extinction of a few species, or a few million people, but all life will be wiped off the face of the earth within hours. Our planet will become a barren waste for millions of years, void of vibrant life and wonder.
Is an awful scenario like this really plausible? The answer is yes. The threat is very real and the evidence is in the scars our earth bears on the surface, the massive craters on the moon, and the giant wounds on Mars. You would expect that something so catastrophic and horrible for our species and planet would demand attention from lawmakers; wrong. Although our government is well-informed by agencies like NASA, it has neglected to properly fund Near Earth Object (NEO) programs, and it could lead to our destruction. An asteroid impact is a natural disaster we can actually prevent, and if our representatives don’t take steps to improve our warning systems, we will suffer the same fate as the dinosaurs.
As Congress approves billions of dollars for the war in Iraq, they reject a program which would well-equip us to deal with the NEO threat. The cost of the program runs from $300 million to $1.1 billion (Shoemaker), less than the cost of one B-2 stealth bomber at $1.157 billion (Scott). The lower cost would cover using or modifying existing space telescopes to look for potentially hazardous asteroids. It would cost $1.1 billion to build a new space telescope for the same purpose. Congress has rejected both of these plans because they are “too costly (Shoemaker).” Using existing systems, we have detected thousands of NEOs in our solar system. They range in size from a few hundred meters to several kilometers, the largest being the celestial body Ganymed, which is over 32 km, or 20 miles, in diameter (Near Earth Object Fact Sheet). Although it is highly unlikely, if the asteroid Ganymed hit our planet it would obliterate all life, shred the earth’s crust, and bury itself deep in the mantle. It would cause massive volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and even has a chance of ripping our planet apart.
There are over 20,000 objects with diameters greater than 140 meters, or 460 feet, that could collide with the earth. NASA scientists believe they could locate 90% of the objects by the year 2020, but funding has prevented them from doing their job (Near Earth Objects). A perfect example would be the near-miss of the asteroid 2002 EM7, which missed our planet by 298,400 miles, which is about 1.2 times the distance from earth to the moon (Britt). The object was between 40 and 80 meters across, or 130 to 260 feet, and could have destroyed an entire city if it had impacted earth. Some people think that our current system is sufficient, but here’s the kicker; scientists didn’t find the object days after it had passed by our planet. How can the current system be adequate when it didn’t detect an object that could have slammed into our planet and killed millions of people?
The asteroid came at earth from a blind spot in which it couldn’t have been detected using current systems (Britt). The solution to correcting this blind spot would be to construct an observatory or to launch a space-based platform that can observe asteroids from a different galactic vantage point. Scientists at NASA have suggested that placing an observatory around the planet Mercury could help detect objects in this blind spot, but the funding has certainly not been made available by Washington (Britt).
On November 1st, 2007 an object 50 meters across passed within 5 million miles of earth and wasn’t detected until November 20th. An article on NASA’s NEO website highlighted the event,
“Designated 2007 WD5, the asteroid was discovered on Nov. 20, 2007 by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey using a 1.5m telescope on Mt. Lemmon, near Tucson. The object had already passed within 7.5 million km (5 million miles) of the Earth on Nov. 1, before it was discovered. (Chesley).”
Right now, this is a common occurrence. The lack of funding by Congress leaves us opens to an impact which could change the course of human history, or completely wipe us out as a species. Without a comprehensive program to detect objects of all sizes and trajectories, we leave ourselves open to a knockout blow.
An article on Space.com explains that, “about 1,000 asteroids larger than 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) are thought to lurk in orbits that might one day threaten Earth,” and that “about 500 of them have been found (Britt).” The larger objects are easier to track and locate, but pose a greater threat to civilization. Smaller objects are harder to track, but could still cause localized devastation. Over Siberia in 1908, an unknown object exploded, likely an air-burst meteor, and flattened over 800 miles of trees and vegetation. The size of the object which exploded is unknown, but measurements and estimates place the size around 60 to 80 meters across (Research Center). The object caused widespread devastation, and if it had exploded over a major city it would have caused hundreds of thousands, if not millions of deaths. Objects this small are much more difficult to detect than larger objects, even today.
The size of the object is not the only thing that determines the magnitude of impact; density is also a factor. A smaller asteroid, like the 20 meter wide asteroid that left a 600 foot deep crater in Arizona, can cause as much damage as a larger asteroid with a lower density (Britt). The diameter doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. Objects larger than 500 meters across can cause widespread surface damage to the earth wherever they impact, create tsunamis, block out the sun, incinerate large areas, and kill millions of people. The larger the object, the greater the threat they pose.
As of now, the greater risk comes from the smaller asteroids which are harder to detect with our current systems. Until we develop a full catalogue of the larger asteroids, and we’ve detected and tracked every one, we are susceptible to a catastrophic impact, no matter how small the chance. The problem isn’t warding off asteroids, because we have adequate weapons like nuclear ballistic missiles that can change an asteroid’s course, but it is detecting them. Right now we aren’t allocating enough resources to provide NEO researchers the tools to evaluate all potential threats.
To solve the problem of under funding by congress, I propose an ambitious presentation. Recently, the University of Arizona published a web page which allows users to ‘test’ their own asteroid impact. You can input projectile diameter, velocity, type of material, density, impact angle, and rock target type and you will receive a series of outputs which predict an asteroid impact (Marcus). My proposal involves a much more graphical approach, as opposed to a strictly numerical approach, but would incorporate the use of genuine data like the University of Arizona’s website.
I think that the members of congress need to see visual representations of what an impact would mean for the earth. They need to see 3d models of an asteroid slamming into an American city. They need to understand how real the threat of an impact is. Rather than just a bunch of numbers and statistics, they need to see that cities will be obliterated, people will die, and the world will be changed forever by a significant or well-placed impact. I would provide graphs of damage costs, death tolls, and would show what various impacts would do to cities, shorelines, climate, and the stability of life on earth. I think that too often politicians look at problems based on numbers, and fail to see the reality of some situations.
The project will graphically explain what different size asteroids would do to urban areas, suburban areas, and rural areas. The presentation would mainly use smaller asteroids from 30 to 500 meters across as examples. It is simply more realistic and I wouldn’t want to go overboard and lose credibility by proclaiming a giant asteroid, which we wouldn’t be able to detect, would unknowingly slam into our world unexpectedly. Realism and graphical representation are key to convincing lawmakers to fund NEO programs. Data from actual past-earth impacts would be plugged-in to the simulation, and the result would be an accurate depiction of what might happen. I would also utilize photos of impact craters in Arizona, the Yucatan in Mexico, Siberia, and Asia, as well as craters on the moon and Mars, to quantify the threat. I think that after seeing the consequences of an impact on American cities, and seeing the evidence of past impacts, it would be incredibly hard to look away.
Over the course of human history, our species has faced many threats. Some came from predators in the wild, some from other humans, and some from space. Our ancestors were powerless to stop an incoming asteroid from striking the planet. If a ‘World-Killer’ asteroid had slammed into the planet, they wouldn’t see it coming, and couldn’t do anything about it. Now, for the first time in our history, we have the ability to prevent our own demise. We can detect and deflect incoming objects, saving millions of lives, and possibly our planet. Out there in the blackness of space, an asteroid large enough to cram the city of Phoenix hundreds of feet into the earth’s mantle slowly tumbles over itself. It’s in one of our blind spots, where we can’t detect it. If we invest a few billion dollars in NEO programs, we can greatly reduce the possibility of being hit by surprise.
The question is: Why aren’t we? The graveness of the situation needs to be appreciated by our lawmakers, as well as the public. No longer can we sit by and fund wars oblivious to the real and immense threat posed by asteroids. Write your politicians, protest in Washington, do whatever it takes for them to listen. We might not have as much time as you think, and don’t let politicians tell you otherwise. They’re quick to fund wars, yet quick to ignore what really matters.
